In recent years, China has increased its aggressive rhetoric against Taiwan, a democratic, independent country that broke from the mainland in 1949. “That’s why we recommend enhancing deterrence so we don’t get into this situation in the first place.” “Although our analysis indicates that the United States and Taiwan would prevail and inflict heavy casualties, it’s possible to imagine the Chinese are looking at it differently,” Cancian explained. In the report, Cancian recommended policies and efforts to deter a future invasion, noting that even if a war is seen as risky for China, the nation still might consider a direct conflict. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program and an author of the report, told The Hill the big takeaway from the simulation is that Taiwan can be sustained as an independent nation. In most scenarios, an alliance between the U.S., Japan and Taiwan defeated China after three or four weeks of fighting - but at the loss of dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and tens of thousands of troops.
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